Small Wars Journal kindly posted an article I wrote on the limitations of COIN and the advantages of using proxies here.
Michael Few is leaving after a year and half as editor of SWJ, during which time his energy and insight have been remarkable. I was especially interested in his co-authored (With Carl Prine and Crispin Burke) recommendations for revisions to FM 3-24. The revision process concerning FM 3-24 is now underway at Ft Leavenworth.
Saturday, 21 January 2012
Friday, 13 January 2012
War is too important to be left to the adults
There's a beautiful new site called The Children's Illustrated Clausewitz which has various animals, led by Hare Clausewitz, discuss the concepts raised in his work. On the site, Book One has just been completed.
Thursday, 12 January 2012
Goodbye to All That: The Defense Strategic Guidance, Jan 2012
Defense Strategic Guidance (eight pages)
History is now ready to judge upon the decade after 9.11. At this juncture, in January 2012, the Defense Strategic Guidance, which is at best a piece of philosophy, sees this juncture as 'an inflection point'. History may see it very differently, from a lesser scale, looking at it from many years hence, the decade after 9.11 may be the inflection point itself. After all, the pacific rim and Asia have been rapidly developing their economies, market relations, reach and security. 9.11 made the 2000's the decade of the non-state actor but the nation state, with their ability to leverage, concurrently, economy, manpower, ideology framed by nationalism will once again be decisive in American foreign policy in the '10's.
Counterbalances will abound. In the guidance:
"China's emergence as a regional power will have the potential to affect the U.S. economy and our security in a variety of ways. Our two countries have a strong stake in peace and stability in East Asia and an interest in building a cooperative bilateral relationship. However, the growth of China's military power must be accompanied by greater clarity of its strategic intentions in order to avoid causing friction in the region."
There will be some great games played out - most particularly in Africa where China has a massive advantage, and has prosecuted its soft power in the continent relentlessly for the past decade, exchanging access to mineral wealth for funding of national infrastructure and other projects. There have been backlashes against Chinese involvement at the local level, but not enough to impede the process.
Counterinsurgency gets a mention, which I would have bet against:
"Conduct Stability and Counterinsurgency Operations. In the aftermath of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States will emphasize non-military means and military-to-military cooperation to address instability and reduce the demand for significant U.S. force commitments to stability operations. U.S. forces will nevertheless be ready to conduct limited counterinsurgency and other stability operations if required, operating alongside coalition forces wherever possible. Accordingly, U.S. forces will retain and continue to refine the lessons learned, expertise, and specialized capabilities that have been developed over the past ten years of counterinsurgency and stability operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, U.S. forces will no longer be sized to conduct large-scale, prolonged stability operations."
Modestly, too, after the past decade, the Guidance states:
"we have sought to differentiate between those investments that should be made today and those that can be deferred. This includes an accounting of our ability to make a course change that could be driven by many factors, including shocks or evolutions in the strategic, operational, economic, and technological spheres. Accordingly, the concept of "reversibility": including the vectors on which we place our industrial base, our people, our active-reserve component balance, our posture, and our partnership emphasis is a key part of our decision calculus."
Expect to hear more from the recently created Africom in this decade. Security (Somalia) and economics (mineral and energy) will dictate the United States' renewed interest. Asia will get the headlines from the guidance but Africa is where the counterinsurgency knowledge will next be orientated.
History is now ready to judge upon the decade after 9.11. At this juncture, in January 2012, the Defense Strategic Guidance, which is at best a piece of philosophy, sees this juncture as 'an inflection point'. History may see it very differently, from a lesser scale, looking at it from many years hence, the decade after 9.11 may be the inflection point itself. After all, the pacific rim and Asia have been rapidly developing their economies, market relations, reach and security. 9.11 made the 2000's the decade of the non-state actor but the nation state, with their ability to leverage, concurrently, economy, manpower, ideology framed by nationalism will once again be decisive in American foreign policy in the '10's.
Counterbalances will abound. In the guidance:
"China's emergence as a regional power will have the potential to affect the U.S. economy and our security in a variety of ways. Our two countries have a strong stake in peace and stability in East Asia and an interest in building a cooperative bilateral relationship. However, the growth of China's military power must be accompanied by greater clarity of its strategic intentions in order to avoid causing friction in the region."
There will be some great games played out - most particularly in Africa where China has a massive advantage, and has prosecuted its soft power in the continent relentlessly for the past decade, exchanging access to mineral wealth for funding of national infrastructure and other projects. There have been backlashes against Chinese involvement at the local level, but not enough to impede the process.
Counterinsurgency gets a mention, which I would have bet against:
"Conduct Stability and Counterinsurgency Operations. In the aftermath of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States will emphasize non-military means and military-to-military cooperation to address instability and reduce the demand for significant U.S. force commitments to stability operations. U.S. forces will nevertheless be ready to conduct limited counterinsurgency and other stability operations if required, operating alongside coalition forces wherever possible. Accordingly, U.S. forces will retain and continue to refine the lessons learned, expertise, and specialized capabilities that have been developed over the past ten years of counterinsurgency and stability operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, U.S. forces will no longer be sized to conduct large-scale, prolonged stability operations."
Modestly, too, after the past decade, the Guidance states:
"we have sought to differentiate between those investments that should be made today and those that can be deferred. This includes an accounting of our ability to make a course change that could be driven by many factors, including shocks or evolutions in the strategic, operational, economic, and technological spheres. Accordingly, the concept of "reversibility": including the vectors on which we place our industrial base, our people, our active-reserve component balance, our posture, and our partnership emphasis is a key part of our decision calculus."
Expect to hear more from the recently created Africom in this decade. Security (Somalia) and economics (mineral and energy) will dictate the United States' renewed interest. Asia will get the headlines from the guidance but Africa is where the counterinsurgency knowledge will next be orientated.
Sunday, 8 January 2012
2012: Law Enforcement Goes 3-D
At DroneWarsUK, data obtained under the Freedom of Information Act (2000) showed that fifty to sixty private companies and public bodies per years are being given "blanket" permission to fly drones over civil airspace, although mostly limited to a range of 500m of the operator and no higher than 400 feet.
In the US, the media covered a story of a Predator drone being used for surveillance - on suspected cattle rustlers involved in a police standoff - by US Customs and Border Protection. It was billed as the first predator-assisted arrest in the US. With the implications that it isn't to be the last.
According to the LA Times piece, Congress first authorized Customs and Border Protection to buy unarmed Predators in 2005.
If rapidly improving imaging technology on drones are linked to facial recognition software (something Facebook is using, and Apple has a new patent on its Low Threshold Face Recognition) then the result will be the rapid erosion of anonymity in these populations. A drone camera (and they are now being built at 1.8 gigapixel definition) at 45 degrees to the ground observed would be able to scan a human face. Law enforcement is going 3-D.
The 2012 Olympics will most probably see drones overhead, not least because the US will forcefully push for it. At least twelve UK Constabularies already use primitive drones for surveillance. Vancouver's Winter games of 2010 had so much surveillance that a concerned body drafted a Vancouver Statement because:
In the US, the media covered a story of a Predator drone being used for surveillance - on suspected cattle rustlers involved in a police standoff - by US Customs and Border Protection. It was billed as the first predator-assisted arrest in the US. With the implications that it isn't to be the last.
According to the LA Times piece, Congress first authorized Customs and Border Protection to buy unarmed Predators in 2005.
If rapidly improving imaging technology on drones are linked to facial recognition software (something Facebook is using, and Apple has a new patent on its Low Threshold Face Recognition) then the result will be the rapid erosion of anonymity in these populations. A drone camera (and they are now being built at 1.8 gigapixel definition) at 45 degrees to the ground observed would be able to scan a human face. Law enforcement is going 3-D.
 |
| Big Brother never had it so good |
- recent Games have increasingly taken place in and contributed to a climate of fear, heightened security and surveillance; and
- that this has often been to the detriment of democracy, transparency and human rights, with serious implications for international, national and local norms and laws.
Expect the run-up to 2012 London to be dominated by security versus civil liberties debates, airport queues, organized crime initiatives and synchronised swimming tickets.
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