Ali Hawks kindly invited me to participate in a quick podcast discussing aspects of my research at the recent War Studies PhD conference at Cumberland Lodge. I'm constructing a sizeable post on intrastate inequality, in the meantime, here's the podcast. The paper for the talk I gave can be found at this site.
Tuesday, 25 October 2011
Tuesday, 11 October 2011
WMD? Supposed Iran-sponsored assassination plot has a twist
The most fascinating part of U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder's revelation today was that of one of the charges being "conspiracy to use a weapon of mass destruction".
Since the Iranians were apparently hoping to pay a member of a Mexican cartel 1.5 million dollars (to carry out the assassination?) it begs the questions what WMD did they believe the Mexican gang member could obtain? My guess is this is some sort of chemical weapon, sarin perhaps. Then an assassination could be a blanket attack over a larger area that includes the open air location of the Saudi ambassador.
But we shall see, as and when more details emerge. Since WMD carry with them a normative prohibition this works as excellent propaganda - the Iranians using outlawed weapons of indiscriminate killing in order to carry out an assassination.
Since the Iranians were apparently hoping to pay a member of a Mexican cartel 1.5 million dollars (to carry out the assassination?) it begs the questions what WMD did they believe the Mexican gang member could obtain? My guess is this is some sort of chemical weapon, sarin perhaps. Then an assassination could be a blanket attack over a larger area that includes the open air location of the Saudi ambassador.
But we shall see, as and when more details emerge. Since WMD carry with them a normative prohibition this works as excellent propaganda - the Iranians using outlawed weapons of indiscriminate killing in order to carry out an assassination.
Monday, 10 October 2011
The Shabaab
I took my niece to Water Babies in central London earlier this month. It was during the heatwave. The sun was beaming in a cloudless sky which represented the height of the British summer this year. It was early October, which was quite normal for Britain. As they'd say on operations, no doubt, SNAFU.
After Water Babies, I sat in the lounge, rocking the pram, waiting for a friend to come out of the changing room. At the kiosk were the administrators (two) and beside them were cleaners (two). They were talking in heavily accented English and their conversation was concerning the Shabaab (the Youth, Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, "The Mujahideen Youth Movement" حركة الشباب المجاهدين). Like the rogue I am, I listened in - I'd say eavesdropped, but they were speaking so loudly, only Rihanna's 'Man Down' on iPod may have prevented it from reaching my eardrums.
One of the cleaners was a great fan of the Shabaab, in particular their attempt to implement sharia. She was no fan of the anti-Shabaab forces, which include Western special forces trainers and advisors and an American private contractor, Bancroft Global Development. It makes me think how devalued the al-Qaeda brand has become in the decade since its apogee, 9.11. The Shabaab are coherent and geographically distinct. They are a high value Islamist brand. They have an expansive and expanding propaganda network and they published the first volume of a jihadist/Islamist magazine in late 2008, titled Millat Ibrahim.
The power of the Shabaab brand is well known. Al-Awlaki before his death by droning praised the "bullets" of the group and the magazine of AQ in Afghanistan last month urged supporters to similarly embrace the Shabaab. In return, the Shabaab have pledge allegiance recently to Ayman al-Zawahiri. The Shabaab seek to control territory, to rule it, or terrorise it, depending on your interpretation, and are actively involved in a conventional-esque clash with pro-interim authority forces across Mogadishu. It's easier for the cleaner to support Shabaab, whose fortunes and misfortunes are much easier to gauge than it is the shadowy idea that is al-Qaeda.
So highly thought of are the Shabaab in the U.S. that the country has become the sixth and latest theatre of operations for Obama's drones, operating out of either Ethiopia or Djibouti, depending on the source you subscribe to. Of course, Somalis have substantial populations in Canada, U.S. and Western Europe. I've little doubt that the cleaner was a Somali, her knowledge of Shabaab stories, showing them in a positive light, wasn't great, but it didn't need to be. She regaled the administrative staff with stories of their sharia justice and their fighting the Kenyan forces. Jonathan Evans, head of MI5, has warned of the threat of returning British Somalis who have trained with the Shabaab. All of which makes the Shabaab the jihadist brand of the new decade.
Writing a critique of de Beauvoir's eulogy to the Marquis de Sade (Le Temps, 1951/52), D.J. Enright in 1966 (Conspirators and Poets) argued that 'Bored and uneasy with our little lives we resort to the greater amplitude of symbols. Bardot, Byron, Hitler, Hemingway, Monroe, Sade: we do not require our heroes to be subtle, just to be big. Then we can depend on someone to make them subtle.' The Shabaab take their place in that pantheon now, too.
After Water Babies, I sat in the lounge, rocking the pram, waiting for a friend to come out of the changing room. At the kiosk were the administrators (two) and beside them were cleaners (two). They were talking in heavily accented English and their conversation was concerning the Shabaab (the Youth, Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, "The Mujahideen Youth Movement" حركة الشباب المجاهدين). Like the rogue I am, I listened in - I'd say eavesdropped, but they were speaking so loudly, only Rihanna's 'Man Down' on iPod may have prevented it from reaching my eardrums.
One of the cleaners was a great fan of the Shabaab, in particular their attempt to implement sharia. She was no fan of the anti-Shabaab forces, which include Western special forces trainers and advisors and an American private contractor, Bancroft Global Development. It makes me think how devalued the al-Qaeda brand has become in the decade since its apogee, 9.11. The Shabaab are coherent and geographically distinct. They are a high value Islamist brand. They have an expansive and expanding propaganda network and they published the first volume of a jihadist/Islamist magazine in late 2008, titled Millat Ibrahim.
The power of the Shabaab brand is well known. Al-Awlaki before his death by droning praised the "bullets" of the group and the magazine of AQ in Afghanistan last month urged supporters to similarly embrace the Shabaab. In return, the Shabaab have pledge allegiance recently to Ayman al-Zawahiri. The Shabaab seek to control territory, to rule it, or terrorise it, depending on your interpretation, and are actively involved in a conventional-esque clash with pro-interim authority forces across Mogadishu. It's easier for the cleaner to support Shabaab, whose fortunes and misfortunes are much easier to gauge than it is the shadowy idea that is al-Qaeda.
So highly thought of are the Shabaab in the U.S. that the country has become the sixth and latest theatre of operations for Obama's drones, operating out of either Ethiopia or Djibouti, depending on the source you subscribe to. Of course, Somalis have substantial populations in Canada, U.S. and Western Europe. I've little doubt that the cleaner was a Somali, her knowledge of Shabaab stories, showing them in a positive light, wasn't great, but it didn't need to be. She regaled the administrative staff with stories of their sharia justice and their fighting the Kenyan forces. Jonathan Evans, head of MI5, has warned of the threat of returning British Somalis who have trained with the Shabaab. All of which makes the Shabaab the jihadist brand of the new decade.
Writing a critique of de Beauvoir's eulogy to the Marquis de Sade (Le Temps, 1951/52), D.J. Enright in 1966 (Conspirators and Poets) argued that 'Bored and uneasy with our little lives we resort to the greater amplitude of symbols. Bardot, Byron, Hitler, Hemingway, Monroe, Sade: we do not require our heroes to be subtle, just to be big. Then we can depend on someone to make them subtle.' The Shabaab take their place in that pantheon now, too.
Sunday, 2 October 2011
Displaced Persons: Afghanistan
Statistics on Afghanistan tend to favour either the financial drain or the dead and seriously wounded. Yet the raging decade long conflict between insurgent, puppet Karzai government and ISAF counterinsurgency forces have created a vast number of displaced people. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre gives a damning verdict (.pdf here):
"The UN and ICRC have recorded that 730,000 people have been internally displaced in Afghanistan due to conflict since 2006, an average of 400 a day. At the end of January 2011, 309,000 people remained internally displaced due to armed conflict, human rights abuses and other generalised violence. This figure was higher than at any time since 2005.
While armed opposition groups have been responsible for the majority of killings, most of the documented mass displacements have occurred as a result of offensives by international forces."
Perhaps most of the documented mass displacements are a result of offensive by ISAF forces because they document these displacements for more thoroughly or perhaps because it's easier to cite foreign intervention rather than Taliban generated displacement. But most likely, the escalation of bombing to win has created uninhabitable settlements. Look here at a Paula Broadwell blog post on airpower.
Recent drought in Afghanistan has similarly led to migration. We tend to think of Afghanistan as a "security situation" but drought in northern, north-eastern and western provinces of Afghanistan means that three million (of the twenty two million population still inside Afghanistan's borders) face severe food shortages. Insecurity means that aid to the afflicted regions is extremely difficult:
But in the face of continuing conflict, it becomes difficult to effectively operate, say observers in Kabul. “Billions of dollars have been sunk into Afghanistan in search of durable long-term solutions, but until the security question is solved, little can be achieved,” an international aid worker told IRIN.
A Food Security Risk Index of 196 countries released on 31 August by Maplecroft, rates Afghanistan number nine. It says the country faces extreme food insecurity and that a major driver of this is conflict and displacement.
"The UN and ICRC have recorded that 730,000 people have been internally displaced in Afghanistan due to conflict since 2006, an average of 400 a day. At the end of January 2011, 309,000 people remained internally displaced due to armed conflict, human rights abuses and other generalised violence. This figure was higher than at any time since 2005.
While armed opposition groups have been responsible for the majority of killings, most of the documented mass displacements have occurred as a result of offensives by international forces."
Perhaps most of the documented mass displacements are a result of offensive by ISAF forces because they document these displacements for more thoroughly or perhaps because it's easier to cite foreign intervention rather than Taliban generated displacement. But most likely, the escalation of bombing to win has created uninhabitable settlements. Look here at a Paula Broadwell blog post on airpower.
Recent drought in Afghanistan has similarly led to migration. We tend to think of Afghanistan as a "security situation" but drought in northern, north-eastern and western provinces of Afghanistan means that three million (of the twenty two million population still inside Afghanistan's borders) face severe food shortages. Insecurity means that aid to the afflicted regions is extremely difficult:
But in the face of continuing conflict, it becomes difficult to effectively operate, say observers in Kabul. “Billions of dollars have been sunk into Afghanistan in search of durable long-term solutions, but until the security question is solved, little can be achieved,” an international aid worker told IRIN.
A Food Security Risk Index of 196 countries released on 31 August by Maplecroft, rates Afghanistan number nine. It says the country faces extreme food insecurity and that a major driver of this is conflict and displacement.
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